On the 44th day after the start of the war, Hezbollah is still standing, undefeated; a few thousand fighters, standing up to one of the strongest armies in the world, with tens of thousand fighters, and has not been broken after a month of "annihilation". The armies of Egypt, Syria and Jordan have been beaten in wars that were much shorter.
Clearly, Israel was not prepared for this war and were caught by surprise.
General Dan Halutz, was asked what he feels when he drops a one-ton bomb on a residential quarter and answered: "a slight bang on the wing." He also added that he sleeps well at night.
Halutz believed that it was possible to crush Hezbollah by aerial bombardment, supplemented by artillery shelling from land and sea. He believed that if he destroyed the towns, neighborhoods, roads and ports of Lebanon, the Lebanese people would rise and compel their government to remove Hezbollah. For a week he killed and devastated, until it became clear to everybody that this method achieves the opposite - strengthens Hezbollah, weakens its opponents within Lebanon and throughout the Arab world and destroys the world-wide sympathy Israel enjoyed at the beginning of the war.
The Israeli intelligence used thousands of collaborators that have been recruited in the course of 39 years by torture, bribery and extortion (junkies needing drugs, someone begging to be allowed to visit his dying mother, etc.) Clearly, no collaborators were found among the Hezbollah, and without them intelligence is blind.
A strong army cannot defeat a guerilla organization, because the guerilla is a political phenomenon. The stronger the army, the better equipped with advanced technology, the smaller are its chances of winning such a confrontation.
The war has proved that Hezbollah is a strong opponent, and any political solution in the North must include it. Since Syria is its strong ally, it must also be included. The settlement must be worthwhile for them too, otherwise it will not last.
The price is the return of the Golan Heights.
